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S  0h͐ ^ `  X*  0Ґ ^   Z*  08א ^ `  Z*H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff80___PPT10.z Default Design}0 $(  r  S x>  r  S ~     H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.zpaS+D=' R= @B +0  h^(  h. h  ~Dq0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   h$Background to the research/ key aims%%$ %  h  ~P0e0e?Rectangle 3 `  *TResearch commissioned by the Home Office Rationale concern about OC harms in local neighbourhoods Main aims To develop a method of measuring the impact of OC on local businesses in high crime communities To pilot survey methods with a study of up to 400 businesses, building on the Commercial Victimisation Survey questionnaire Key challenges To formulate and operationalise a definition of OC To identify  potential impacts of OC on business To devise valid and reliable measurement instruments To find a way of approaching businesses to talk about OC3Z/Z ZZZZ3/   &i   H h 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.0K+D=' = @B +G 0 ^ V p<(  < <  ~80e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   JMethod$   <  ~\0e0e?Rectangle 3 `   Fieldwork in three contrasting sample neighbourhoods, where police believed organised crime to be significant All businesses identified through visual audit Survey of businesses within the sample areas  Teach respondents working definition of OC:  Any deliberate, co-operative criminal activity engaged in over a sustained period by the same set of three or more collaborating individuals. Ask respondents about wide range of types of crime, establishing if they thought any were  organised Ask respondents about repeat patterns of incident and event similarities Elicit  community knowledge of organised crime patterns, through semi structured interviews with key local business leaders Canvass police intelligence on organised crime, gangs and business victimisation P.PPPPP.  H < 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.1 Uq+D=' = @B +~0 @%(  @ @  ~0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   IData source 1: The survey  @  ~40e0e?Rectangle 3 `  Representative sample of businesses (though not areas) Indicators suggest high levels of reliability Key queries over validity Do the business respondents remember the number and attributes of incidents accurately? In practice, do respondents use the researcher-specified definition of organised crime? Do respondents know whether the incidents they have experienced result from  organised crime? Are respondents willing to talk candidly about their own organised crime victimisation? Will respondents talk candidly about offers of illicit goods and their own participation in organised crime? .ZZU H @ 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.` n+D=' = @B +0 DE(  D4 D  ~r0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   n"Data source 2: Police intelligence##("  D  ~v0e0e?Rectangle 3 `  aInformed by access to range of police sources of information: reported crime, community consultation, informants, offenders, detected offences. No indicators of reliability No direct access to intelligence files Key queries over validity How typical are the cases the police remember or focus on? Do the police know about organised crime as understood for the research purposes? Do the police over-generalise from the extreme and dramatic? Are the police sometimes deliberately misinformed? Are police intelligence inferences from information warranted? Do the police tell researchers what they really know? XZsZZe.   _ H D 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.)1Y+D=' = @B +0 H(  H= H  0e0e?Rectangle 1026 `}   q%Data source 3: Community intelligence&&(%   H  80e0e?Rectangle 1027 `  @Informed by informal liaisons with community members, not compromised by mistrust of police or reluctance to be candid with researchers No time or resource for detailed ethnography, capturing what is  known Sources picked up opportunistically No indicators of reliability Key queries over validity Do the sources used by community informants have an accurate picture of organised crime, as understood in the research? Would well-informed community members tell researchers the truth as they see it? How likely is it that well-informed community members generalise from rather particular and dramatic events? B+P8PP+8c H H 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.-r͝+D=' = @B +} 0 0l$(  lr l S  `}   r l S    H l 0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.zp +D=' = @B +}0 $(  r  S >  r  S @ `    H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.zp"+D=' = @B + 0  @Gq(  px Gq <A  ??]  H p 0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.z.+D=' = @B +:0  ::`9t9(  t' t B@` WOC survey and CVS crime prevalence per 100 retail premises with nine or fewer staff .XV"  X 6 @p t #"B6 x@pJ Mt <?5p~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P12(" @`J Lt <? 5~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P35(" @`Z Kt <l? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 `Offered stolen goods " @`I Jt <!?5 p~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O4(" @`I It <!? 5~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`T Ht <h!? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZEmployee fraud " @`I Gt <!?5 p ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O7(" @`I Ft <)!? 5 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O3(" @`T Et <2!? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZOutsider theft " @`I Dt <\t <Hg!?5 p ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O4(" @`I =t <`p!? 5 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O9(" @`T >\`Y{ff___PPT10i.zp+D=' = @B +'M0 >L6LEDyK(  x x B^3 w)Risk increases with numbers of incidents **"  MI| P Dy #"."bbGGGGP_W gx <b3?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]0("   @`J fx <m3?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P75(" @`I ex <m3?C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`I dx <xy3? C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`J cx <3? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P93(" @`J bx <3?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P60(" @` ax <ԡ3?P~v0___PPT106___PPT9 GOf those at least four Times, per cent victimised at least five timesR 0 "#/"#(  @`I `x <(3? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`J _x <3? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P53(" @`J ^x <3?C  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P50(" @`I ]x <3?  C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`J \x <3? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P64(" @`J [x <3? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P63(" @` Zx <T3?P ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 FOf those at least three times, per cent victimised at least four times(G F"#(  @`J Yx <3?,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P50(" @`J Xx <\3?,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P68(" @`J Wx <6?C ,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P67(" @`J Vx < 6? , C  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P20(" @`J Ux <6?,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P76(" @`J Tx <"6?,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P48(" @` Sx <46?P,  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 COf those at least twice, per cent victimised at least three timesR8  7"# "#"  @`J Rx <@6?, ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P60(" @`J Qx <pI6?, ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P61(" @`J Px <R6?C , ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P26(" @`J Ox <X\6? C , ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P23(" @`J Nx <e6? , ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P70(" @`J Mx <do6?, ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P40(" @` Lx < p6?P, ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 :Of those at least once, percent victimised at last twiceR-  ,"# "#  @`I Kx <t6?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O2(" @`I Jx <V6?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O9(" @`I Ix <p6?C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O5(" @`I Hx <6? C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O5(" @`J Gx <6? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P19(" @`J Fx <6?~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P20(" @`i Ex <P6?P~v0___PPT106___PPT9 oAt least once (N=420)( "# @`I Dx <6?4~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O% # @`W Cx <8?4~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]%*(#" @`W Bx < 8?C 4~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]%*(#" @`W Ax <8? 4C ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]%*(#" @`W @x <8?4 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]%*(#" @`W ?x <0+8?4~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]%*(#" @` >x <>8?P4 V  @`g =x <B8?4~v0___PPT106___PPT9 mOutsider violence*("" @`g >\`Y{ff___PPT10i.zM+D=' 6= @B +qc0 bbYb(    BN8P~v0___PPT106___PPT9 YVictim beliefs about whether or not incidents experienced resulted from organised crime 0Y X""X ^   #"F: I  <8? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`I  <̮8? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`K  <48? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 Q100(" @`O  <8?p  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 1 (4)  " @`O  <8? p~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U Extortion  " @`J  <$8? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P77(" @`I  <8? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O8(" @`J  < 8?  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P15(" @`P  <8?p ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V 3 (13)  " @`T ~ <8?p ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZOutsider theft " @`J } <7? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P43(" @`J | <7? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P43(" @`J { <7?  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P13(" @`P z <#7?p  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V 5 (23)  " @`S y <.7? p~v0___PPT106___PPT9 Y Vehicle theft " @`J x <87?!  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P38(" @`J w <A7?!  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P21(" @`J v <L7? !  ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P41(" @`P u <T7?p!   ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V 7 (29)  " @`O t <T_7?! p ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U Robberies  " @`J s <h7?( ! ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P88(" @`I r <r7?( ! ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O6(" @`I q <`}7? ( ! ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O6(" @`P p <7?p(  ! ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V 8 (32)  " @`T o <7?( p! ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZEmployee theft " @`J n <7?/ ( ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P75(" @`J m <̢7?/ ( ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P11(" @`J l <\7? / ( ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P14(" @`O k <7?p/  ( ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 10 (44)  " @`N j <T7?/ p( ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 TViolence  " @`J i <t7?6 / ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P29(" @`J h <7?6 / ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P33(" @`J g <7? 6 / ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P37(" @`O f <7?p6  / ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 19 (78)  " @`T e <7?6 p/ ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZOutsider fraud " @`J d <7?=6 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P39(" @`J c <J?=6 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P22(" @`J b <J? =6 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P39(" @`O a <J?p= 6 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 20 (82)  " @`N ` <$J?=p6 ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 TBurglary  " @`J _ <8*J?D=~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P70(" @`J ^ <1J?D=~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P19(" @`J ] <p>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.z9A+D=' J= @B +00 G?P(  PZ P  ~lK0e0e?Rectangle 2}  K HMain grounds survey respondents gave for believing crime to be organisedII(H = P  ~prK0e0e?Rectangle 3 ` K wG Just a hunch The MO used Series of events Known/observed offenders G H P 0޽h ? ZXdbmo___PPT10i.O9+D=' J= @B +G 0 ^V w|(  | | B̐Kj ;Estimates for evidence-based prevalence of organised crime 0; :"+ x `g w| #"*-,,-,W )| <K? ;`g~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]5*("# @`I (| <K?y; g~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O2(" @`N '| <K?;yg~v0___PPT106___PPT9 TGraffiti  " @`W &| <\K? `;~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]6*("# @`I %| <xK?y ;~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O2(" @`O $| <K?y;~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U Vandalism  " @`W #| <K? `~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]5*("# @`I "| <K?y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O2(" @`T !| <K? y~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ZOutsider fraud " @`W  | <N? ` ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ]3*("# @`I | <@ N?y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O5(" @`N | <N? y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 TBurglary  " @`X | <6N? ` ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 ^14*("# @`J | <?N?y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 P11(" @`P | <CN? y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V Shop theft  " @` | <DcN? ` ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 Percentage of total sample where there were repeat incidents AND it was believed that there were linkages between incidents AND there were grounds stronger than a hunch( "" @` | < N?y ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 Percentage of total sample where offence experienced AND it is believed to be organised AND there were grounds stronger than a hunch( ""N . @` | <|N?y  V  @``B *| 08c ?``B +| 08c ?g`gTB ,| c $ ?gTB -| c $ ?``gZB 0| s *1 ? ` TB 2| c $ ?yygTB 5| c $ ?  gTB 9| c $ ? ` TB D| c $ ? ` TB Q| c $ ?`TB ^| c $ ?;`;H | 0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.z+D=' 7= @B +0 `(  `I `  ~<N0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  N 7Variations in business vulnerability to organised crime88(7  `  ~N0e0e?Rectangle 3 ` N ABy size By sector By area  H ` 0޽h ? ZXdbmo80___PPT10.+R0 (  x  <A ??   <NyV <Number of workers and per cent prevalence of organised crime==< H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff80___PPT10. { 0 8(  x  <A ??   <N "   <PN ~2Sector and per cent prevalence of organised crime 331 H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i. {06+D=' 7= @B +:<0 ;; 2:;(  ;9 ?  # #":. &&&'&&&'&p`U  BN?!? ~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 36 (n=48)  " @`U  BN?}!~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 34 (n=45)  " @`U  BQ?!}~v0___PPT106___PPT9 U 31 (n=40)  " @`{  B Q?!~v0___PPT106___PPT9 { Any Organised "  @`O  BQ?? !~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O3(" @`O  BXQ?}!~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O0(" @`O  B\)Q?}!~v0___PPT106___PPT9 O2(" @`T  B2Q?!~v0___PPT106___PPT9 TViolence  " @`O  BR?Y~v0___PPT106___PPT9 V Shop-theft  " @`  B8/R?? Y~v0___PPT106___PPT9 East Midlands %X((  "#"" @`  BWR?}Y~v0___PPT106___PPT9 London %X(( "#"" @`  B4ZR?}Y~v0___PPT106___PPT9 West Midlands %X((  "#"" @`  BX]R?Y V  @``B  08c ?? `B  08c ?? HB  C HB  C ? ? `B  01 ?Y? Y`B  01 ?!? !  <pRw HBase: All 420 businesses  <uR0 CArea percentages of businesses experiencing any organised incidentDD1  H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff80___PPT10. {'7} 0 p$(  r  S \ `}   r  S ]`  H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.~0!+D=' R= @B +}0 @$(  r  S R> R r  S @R `   R H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff___PPT10i.z@P &+D=' R= @B +$ 0 `$(  r  S dR `}  R r  S >\`Y{ff80___PPT10.z60 \6(  \ \  ~HR0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  R |Variations in organised  crime chemistries in the three areas??(> h \  ~؟R0e0e?Rectangle 3 ` R TWhat locally brought suitable organised crime victims and likely offenders together in the absence of protection of the former from the latter through  capable guardianship . What local  props were available to help commit or prevent organised crime: for example camouflage enabling the offender to escape notice What local  audiences were present to persuade or dissuade organised criminal behaviour by the likely offender?Z H \ 0޽h ? ZXdbmo80___PPT10.*@|$ 0 `$(  r  S R `}  R r  S R ` R H  0޽h ? ff>>\`Y{ff80___PPT10.~_0 YQd(  d d  ~tR0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  R ; Conclusions   d  ~HR0e0e?Rectangle 3 `P R The methods we used were the best in practice that we were able to come up with The findings from the three data sources do not in all cases sit easily with one another The survey findings appear to be reliable, though their validity is uncertain The survey findings are, we think, plausible and provide an alternative to professional and community impressions The professional/community views provide, however, a plausible but hard-to-test theory explaining different ways in which organised crime is produced and sustained in some high crime neighbourhoods. Some perceived benefits as well as harms to the local community were associated with organised crimeP H d 0޽h ? 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